Before I get into my playoff predictions I want to acknowledge the season and career of the drastically under-appreciated Ray Whitney. Whitney recently scored his 1000th NHL point, a tremendous accomplishment especially given that he spent much of his career in the dead puck era. His success becomes even more noteworthy when you consider that Whitney spent seasons in the American Hockey League, the now defunct International Hockey League, and Germany before settling in as an NHL regular. The Left Winger has had borderline all-star numbers, and sometimes surpassed that standard, on numerous occasions. To his name he has ten twenty goal seasons. He's reached thirty goals twice, fifty assists four times, and seventy points five times. He chipped in fifteen points to help the Hurricanes hoist Lord Stanley's Cup in 2006. So why has he flown so far under the radar for so long? Well for starters Whitney is the kind of soft spoken Canadian that embodies the spirit of the hockey player: let your game do the talking. But like many issues these days, we can put a large portion of the blame on commissioner Gary Bettman, and indirectly Wayne Gretzky. With the exception of a short stint with the Oilers in 1997-'98, Whitney has plied his trade with four teams who've come into existence in the last twenty years: the Sharks, the Panthers, the Blue Jackets, the Hurricanes, and now the Coyotes. Consistency does not breed star power in non traditional markets. And so to little fan fare Whitney surpassed a thousand points, and it looks like he may watch the mark fade away in his rearview mirror. At age thirty-nine he played every game for the 'Yotes, scoring seventy-seven points and posting a gaudy +26 plus/minus, a career best. Still, at his advanced age Whitney's future is as uncertain as his team's. We at Friday (Unassisted) wish him and the Coyotes the best this postseason. If this is indeed the end for Ray Whitney, we hope he finally gets the recognition he's earned.
And now onto the Playoffs.
The NHL playoffs is the most exciting tournament in American sports because of the intensity of every seven game series. Every team believes it has a shot at winning the cup, a belief that creates the highly emotional, competitive affairs that we see every year. A lot of the talking heads and even some of the players throw out intangibles as keys to playoff success: grit, heart, guts, or for Head Coach Peter Laviolette of the Flyers, jam. I don't deny that a player's attitude can sway a series, but a formula exists for playoff supremacy. In order of importance, a team needs these qualities to sustain a deep cup run, excluding health and luck of course.
1. Deep defensive corps. The hot goaltender steals many of the headlines come springtime in the NHL. Tim Thomas's brilliance in backstopping the Bruins to the Stanley Cup won him the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. But where would the Bruins be without Big Z guarding the blue line? Thomas stole games on numerous occasions during the Bruins' cup run, but in many ways Chara and the rest of the B's underrated D-men made his heroics possible. Chara played upwards of thirty minutes every night. On his best nights, Thomas saw twenty-five or fewer shots, keeping him fresh for the grueling second season. With his gargantuan size, Chara also controlled the crease area like the cyclops controlled his cave in "The Odyssey:" all intruders would be smashed into a pulp. In doing so, Chara limited the amount of physical shots that Thomas received over the two months to victory. No doubt great goaltending is integral to playoff success, but think back two years ago to when the Blackhawks lifted the Cup. Antii Niemi played solid but well short of spectacular for the 2010 champions. On the opponent's side stood journeyman Michael Leyton, who had a habit of trading the soft goal for the spectacular save. The series epitomized the importance of defensemen. Chris Pronger, who with Scott Niedermayer led a JS Giguerre/ Ilya Bryzgalov tandem to the ultimate prize in 2007 (also worth noting: he dragged the eighth seeded Oilers to within one game of glory in 2006), played thirty minutes nearly every game that playoffs for the Flyers. He matched up with the opposing team's best players every shift, and dictated the pace of games with his size, presence, and patience with the puck. He neutralized the red-hot, all pronunciation Toews-Byfuglien-Kane line for four games before Joel Quenneville got smart and split them up. It certainly helped to have veteran Kimmo Timonen in reserve for the Flyers, but Pronger was the star and could have won the Conn Smythe despite his team's loss. If Pronger and Chara represent the impact of the looming behemoth defenseman, Duncan Kieth and Brent Seabrook offer us a look at two of the best mobile two-way defenders in the game. With their speed and hockey sense, Kieth and Seabrook can simultaneously snuff out an opponent's attack while facilitating their own. Their mobility allows them to avoid the kind of physical wear and tear that plagues the big defenseman (It's no coincidence that Pronger has missed almost two seasons following the Flyers deep run in 2010). Nicklas Lidstrom stands alone as the Statue of David for the mobile d-man, that is, the one all other d-men strive to emulate. He's won four Stanley Cups with Detroit, and could add a fifth even as he crosses into his fifth decade of life. The man is a marvel. If you look at every playoff team this year, nearly all have the kind of defensemen who can eat ice time and play effectively: In the West you have Kevin Bieksa and Alex Edler in Vancouver, Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk in St. Louis, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter in Nashville, Nick Lidstom and Nick Kronwall in Detroit, the aforementioned Kieth and Seabrook in Chicago, and Dan Boyle and Brent Burns in San Jose. The East boasts Chara and Seidenberg in Boston, McDonagh, Girardi, Staal and Del Zotto in New York, Letang and Orpik in Pittsburgh, Coburn and Timonen in Philly, and even the offensive minded Mike Green in Washington, whose health is paramount to the Capital's postseason run. The teams with the deepest core behind their clydesdales will play into late May and early June.
2. Goaltending- A misconception exists in the minds of many hockey fans: the myth of the hot goalie. What we should measure is not the goalie's "hotness," nor his game to game stats, but his innate ability to steal games. In other words, the 5-4 win is worth just as much as the 1-0 win. A goalie cannot feasibly every puck every night, but if he stops the right pucks his team should win. The right save may be a half break away while the goalie is facing a 2-0 deficit. A spectacular glove save in a 5-5 game could win a game for a team. Tim Thomas had countless saves in such games that have resulted in Bruins victories. The right save can steal a game, if made habitual it could steal a series. Over the years the "hot goalie" can only carry a team so far. Jaroslav Halak nearly single-handedly beat the Capitals and Penguins in 2010. He could not however sustain the energy necessary to overcome a better Flyers. Ditto for JS Giguerre during his magical run in '03. With a deep blueline in front of him, a stealer can win a cup as Thomas did last year.
3. Scoring Depth with a hint of physicality- The teams with forwards that can score and play physical will play deep into the Spring. Defensive matchups will take care of first line scorers considering that refs let more borderline plays go. Coaches counter this by sticking a grinder between two skilled players, think Alex Burrows in Vancouver and Scott Hartnell in Philly. The Penguins have an abundance of both skill and grit, and possess arguably the two best forwards on the planet. They are the envy of all other organizations when it comes to forward depth, and pose the toughest matchup for any defensive team. We've discussed this advantage here before: Crosby's Back.
Eastern Conference
1. New York vs. 8. Ottawa
D-Corps: New York
Goaltending: New York
Forwards: New York Slightly
New York has a clear advantage when considering the three main categories we've discussed. However, Ottawa won the season series three games to one. Is there a chance of an upset here? Sure, but I don't think it will happen. New York's defensive depth will neutralize the talented line of Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, and Milan Michalek. Ryan Callahan and Co. will terrorize the likes of Erik Karlsson and Sergei Gonchar on the back line and in the corners. It helps to have Henrik Lunqvist standing between the pipes as well. He's been the best goaltender all season long. King Henrik strips his humble Swedish nature as soon as he takes the ice; he dares the shooters to score on him, he won't accept any goal against. That kind of confidence permeates the locker room. Ottawa ran out of steam at the end of the year resulting in their eighth seeded finish. They'll be out in five here.
Prediction: Rangers 4, Sens 1
2. Boston Bruins vs. 7. Washington Capitals
D-Corps: Boston
Goaltending: Boston
Forwards: Washington
Once a power in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals fought through a season of turmoil to finish seventh this year. Alex Ovechkin continues to look more and more like his enigmatic teammate Alex Semin. However, Ovi has turned it on lately, finishing with a respectable thirty-eight goals. Even better news for Caps fans, Nicklas Backstrom returned from concussion and should be well rested for the playoffs. I smell an upset here... but then again these are the former champs with a roster that is virtually unchanged from last year's winner. Zdeno Chara is still the baddest mother in the village as Pierre Maguire likes to say. The concern for Boston ironically though, is in goal. Tuuka Rask outplayed Tim Thomas much of the year before an injury ended his season. Thomas's flailing style has yielded a plethora of bad goals in recent weeks. An over-the-hill Marty Turco doesn't offer much support either. Fine, I'll take the Capitals in seven.
Prediction: Capitals 4, Bruins 3
3. Florida Panthers vs. 6. New Jersey Devils
D-Corps: Devils
Goaltending: Devils, but closer than you think
Forwards: Devils
The NHL's faulty seeding system results in this lovely first round matchup. Here's two stats that define this series. One: -24. Two: 18. The first is the Panther's woeful goal differential, the second their OTL points from this season. The latter statistic resulted in their winning the weakest division in the NHL and thus nabbing an undeserved home ice advantage in the first round. Meanwhile, the Devils reap the rewards of playing the decidedly average Panthers after an impressive 102 point campaign in the brutal Atlantic. Kovalchuk, Parise, Henrique, and the ever-present Patrik Elias will run the Florida d and goaltending ragged in what will surely be a short series. The Panthers' only hope is that the hot weather will mellow out the uber-aggressive Devils forecheck.
Devils 4, Panthers 0
4. Pittsburgh vs. 5. Philadelphia
D-Corps: Philadelphia
Goaltending: Pittsburgh slightly
Forwards: Pittsburgh
The battle of Pennsylvania is the most intense rivalry going in professional sports and undoubtedly the most anticipated matchup in the first round. These teams hate each other like Captain Cook hates Peter Pan. By all accounts this will be a bloodbath loaded with hard-hitting, fighting, and plenty of penalty minutes. The team that can retain their discipline will be the victor. If Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby avoid the extracurriculars, the Penguins should win, but in the last few meetings they've found themselves in multiple scrums. The Flyers won the season series 4-2 with Crosby playing in half of those games. The series may come down to the goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury has a Cup on his resume, while the other-worldly Ilya Bryzgalov has looked very ordinary in previous playoff appearances. Bryz has proven to be a stealer of late, and Philly will need him to play that role if they want to advance. This series probably deserves a post of its own. With Claude Giroux, Malkin, Crosby, James Neal, Jordan Staal, Jaromir Jagr, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, Kris Letang, and Daniel Briere fans will be licking their chops at the delicious hockey being served up. Let's hope this goes seven. I don't see it.
Penguins 4, Flyers 2
Western Conference
1. Vancouver vs. 8. Kings
D-Corps: Canucks
Goaltending: Kings
Forwards: Canucks
The health of Daniel Sedin may decide this series. If he can return from concussion the Canucks should win this fairly easily. The Kings have been in disarray all season long save for one very important person: Goaltender Jonathan Quick. Quick's been stellar and will surely garner some Vezina consideration. He's a bonafide stealer and could extend the series. Can he win it? Maybe, but this Canucks team is clinical. They won their second straight President's Trophy to little fanfare nationally. Their building will be rocking for the postseason however. I like them in six.
Canucks 4, Kings 2
2. St. Louis vs. 7. San Jose
D-Corps: Sharks
Goaltending: Blues
Forwards: Push
How good is St. Louis? After contending for the President's trophy into the last week, and allowing the fewest goals in the league behind the no-name tandem of Brian Elliot and Jaroslav Halak, they appear very good. Still, many still see them as an overachieving team whose luck will run out soon. Let me say this: They are built for the postseason. As we mentioned earlier Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo lead a talented and deep group of blueliners. Up front, the indispensable David Backes hits, fights, and most importantly scores. His fifty-four points were good enough for best on a low scoring team, but the Blues have several big forwards who thrive in the kind of gritty, playoff hockey they'll likely see. Halak stole two series for the Habs in '10, and could do the same here. If he doesn't, Brian Elliot led the league in save percentage and goals against average, so yeah... they're set. The Sharks, though, are not your typical seventh seed. They've made the conference finals the last two seasons and are carrying momentum into the postseason from a late season surge. I like their chances.
Sharks 4, Blues 3
3. Phoenix vs. 6. Chicago
D-Corps: Chicago
Goaltending: Phoenix
Forwards: Chicago
Chicago will miss Jonathon Toews dearly. When healthy, Toews is a top five player in the league. The Hawks just aren't the same without him. However, they possess an impressive supporting casts including several hold overs from their cup winning side. There are a lot of Chicagoans in Phoenix as well... Could they steal home ice advantage? Yes they could. But Shane Doan refuses to dip out of the playoffs early again. The off-ice issues has had a galvanizing effect for the team. They focus on hockey because that's all that they can control. Mike Smith has been phenomenal in goal, while Corey Crawford and Ray Emery like to share the net... and not in a good way. I like the Coyotes here in a semi-upset.
Phoenix 4, Chicago 2
4. Nashville vs. 5. Detroit
D-Corps: Red Wings by a hair
Goaltending: Nashville
Forwards: Detroit
How does Nashville still sneak up on people even after making the playoffs six of the last seven seasons? Well they haven't had a lot of success when they got there. Last year's series victory over the Ducks was the franchise's first. The Predators do however fit the formula we laid out earlier. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are as good as it gets on the defensive side of the puck while both contribute offensively. The Russian import Alexander Radulov brings scoring touch to a forward group that lacks skill but has miles of heart. They won't give up to the powerful Red Wings. Pekka Rinne stops everything he sees and most that he doesn't, a stealer no doubt. On the other side, the Red Wings role four lines out that can score including the game's best two way player Pavel Datsyuk. He can take over a series as he did last year against San Jose. Although the Red Wings ultimately bowed out, Datsyuk was brilliant. Nicklas Lidstrom leads by example, and what an example it is. He might be a top five defenseman of all time, and he can still bring it. The question mark is in goal, where Jimmy Howard starred during the regular season but has yet to sustain a playoff run. This will be a great series played in front of some rabid fan bases. Yes that includes Nashville. They love their Preds. Hmmmm, I like the Predators in this one in seven. Hurray for us!
Predators 4, Red Wings 3
And here's the best video on youtube.
Let's get it in.
-Dill
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