Friday (Unassisted): Final Thoughts on the Kings

When the Philadelphia Flyers won back to back Stanley Cups in 1974-75 they celebrated with their fans to the tune of 2,000,000 voices at the championship parades. I mention this because Kings star center and post-season hero Anze Kopitar had this to say via twitter last Thursday: "250.000 fans in la to share the cup with.... Doesn't get much better than that!!!! #bestfansintheworld." It's not so much Anze's initial statement that bothers me; I'm not going to bring down a man who has just won the best trophy in sports whose excitement is certainly justified. The hashtag however gets me- an overstatement that has come to embody the Kings entire postseason run. While acknowledging the stark differences between the LA sports scene and the Philadelphia sports scene, and ignoring the fact that the Broadstreet Bullies endeared themselves to the fans arguably more than any team in history, two million to a quarter of a million is still a gargantuan gap especially considering the exponential increase in sports exposure over the almost forty years since the Broadstreet era. I don't want to say that Philly has the best fans nor do I really want to say that any one city has the undisputed top fans. It's far too difficult an argument to support because it comes down to defining best. Attendance figures could help but they can be heavily influenced by the economic health of an area. Some may say the loudest fans are often the best fans but again some fans cheer loudly for the sake of being loud.
But I digress. The "best fans in the world" proclamation  comes off as hyperbolic. Like the Kings themselves the fans came out of nowhere. Against the Canucks in the first round the Kings drew some of the lowest local tv ratings of the opening round. Granted, both the Clippers and Lakers were still in the midst of closing their playoff bound seasons when the Kings eliminated the Canucks. But nothing says fairweather fan like rooting for your hockey team only after your basketball teams have been beaten. By the end of the playoffs Kings games had become raucous affairs, drawing celebrities and the common man alike to "LA Live" area surrounding the Staples Center. Kings sweaters started popping up everywhere in both their adolescent purple and gold and their current black, silver, and white. As LA's run grew more impressive so too did their fan base which has painted Angelos, in black and white terms, as a bandwagon group.
We tend to tire of bandwagon fans quickly, but in reality, we grew tired of the Kings in general. Their emphatic dismissal of the top three teams in the West had us singing their praises far before they lifted the ultimate prize. We exhausted the storylines, we wrote paeans to all the heroes to the point where no one was left unsung. After their 12-2 start everything was complete save for the cup presentation. Even Jonathan Quick had already skated away with the Conn Smythe Trophy. The question was besides Quick, who could win the Conn Smythe instead of who will win the Conn Smythe? The Kings earned every compliment they received; they maximized all the excitement they could for a Southern Californian hockey club, and for that, we give them immense credit. They lifted the Stanley Cup with the joy of school children released for the summer: the outcome was never in doubt but they celebrate just the same. 
-Dill Friday

Friday (Unassisted) on the Stanley Cup Final

It takes four wins to take a series. Teams utter this cliche throughout the playoffs but it comes out even more in series of three-zero deficits. After watching their 4-0 demolition of the Devils tonight, the Kings appear to have refuted the cliche completely. The Devils look dead after three games. In all lopsided series, especially in hockey where parody reigns, we tend to get caught up on what is the losing team doing wrong rather than what is the winning team doing right. Let's not take anything away from this Kings team, whose dominance is quickly transforming from surprising to historic. Should they win game four the Kings will complete the postseason with a 16-2 record, tied for the best in league history with the hall of fame laden 1988 Edmonton Oilers. Kopitar, Brown, Carter, Richards, Williams, Doughty, and Quick will forever be linked with Gretzky, Messier, Kurri, Anderson, Tikanen, Coffey, and Fuhr. Let those names sink in while also considering that the Kings started all four of their postseason series on the road where they have yet to lose. Their unblemished road record may vault the Kings over the Oilers for the most impressive postseason run in NHL history. If anything, cheer for the history.

As for the Devils- It's no secret that Ilya Kovalchuk is laboring through every shift. His back flared up earlier in the playoffs forcing him to sit out game two against Philadelphia, and it's likely that a recurrence of the injury has limited his effectiveness. While we can explain away Kovalchuk's struggles, the absence of any sort of attack is concerning for the Devils. Zach Parise has yet to register a point during the Stanley Cup, and he was badly outworked by Anze Kopitar on this pretty passing play.

The goal proved especially deflating for a team whose success has come from their work ethic and tight checking.

More on Parise- For a guy who so often falls in the underrated category I'm starting to think that Zach Parise might be overrated. He never stops moving his feet, he forechecks like a mad man, and he drives the net with abandon. No one can question Parise's heart. However, he misses a large portion of the chances he creates. Parise often finds himself close in on the goalie but fails to capitalize. As snipers like his teammate Kovalchuk and even his opposing Captain Dustin Brown fire for the corners of the goal, Parise seems content to just get the puck on net and work for the rebound. He has eleven shots in the three games thus far, but few have produced great saves from Jonathan Quick with the exception of a sharp pad save on a tip attempt early in game three. His talent is obvious, but frankly, Parise should score more than he does. On the tip effort Parise stood virtually unmarked at the edge of the crease with Quick scrambling to get back into position. It was a great save, but the great scorers find the back of the net in those circumstances. If you're a Devils fan credit Parise for being in the right spot as he so often is, but criticize him for not burying a greater percentage of his opportunities. The Devils need him to capitalize if they hope to extend this series beyond four games.

4th Line Problems? As we talked about in our last post, the Devils have relied heavily on the timely scoring of their unheralded fourth line. That trend continued into the final with Ryan Carter grabbing the team's only goal in a game two loss. Here's where the problem comes in: the better they play, the more they play and in doing so they take minutes from the Devils' star offensive players. The fourth line has overachieved but on some level they're still a fourth line. Steven Gionta spent the majority of the season in the AHL and both Bernier and Carter missed games as healthy scratches. Although they contributed a goal to the cause, both Carter and Gionta defended in vain as Drew Doughty cut through the Devils on this splendid coast-to-coast effort in game two:

The trio also ended the night in dejection as Jeff Carter scored the winner in overtime with the fourthliners on the ice. It may be tough to sit down or split up his hottest group, but Pete DeBoer may have to do just that in order to take this series back to Newark. 

Martinez's Opening goal- I can buy the argument that bad goals or blown calls, or in this case a combination of the two can change the momentum of a game. They tend to deflate the victimized team altering the course of the game or even the series. I'll say this: Martinez's goal should have been disallowed. Martin Brodeur has a right to be furious with the officials. He clearly pins the puck underneath his pad as he sustains repeated whacks from first Dwight King and then the goal scorer Alec Martinez.  

However, for the Devils to look back at the goal as a turning point in the game is to admit defeat completely. It merely serves as an excuse for a team who couldn't thwart the more powerful Kings attack. It's the Stanley Cup Final, if you don't have have the character or the drive to overcome a controversy you probably don't deserve to lift the chalice. 

Rivalries playing a role? On paper the Kings may have had the tougher road to the cup. Indeed they eliminated the top three seeds in the West in a mere fourteen games. Still, their cup run lacked the physical and emotional beating that the Devils faced at the hands of their two most fierce rivals. Because they rely so heavily on an unrelenting, aggressive forecheck, any drop in energy disrupts the system. It's entirely possible that the Devils exhausted themselves in dispatching the Flyers and Rangers respectively simply because of the high level of emotion associated with the matchups. On the other side, the Kings battled with the Blues and Coyotes, not exactly intimidating hockey hotbeds. Their lack of a rivalry may hinder the excitement surrounding the team in the regular season but the Kings and their fans will certainly accept that absence if they hoist the cup because of it. 

Conn Smythe Watch- For the second straight year it looks like an American goaltender will take home Conn Smythe honors as playoff MVP. Jonathan Quick has been superb and beyond for the Kings and is the obvious choice for the award. However, I'd like to see Doughty or Kopitar take home the prize. Goalies win far too often for my liking, and I'd like to see the writers vote a little more creatively for a Kings team that has been great at all aspects of the game. Doughty drives their success from the back line, while Kopitar leads the attack with eighteen points. I guess what it comes down to is the Kings have several worthy candidates, a mark of a great team. 

-Dillon Friday aka Third Generation Slovenian-American. Distant cousin of Anze Kopitar? Perhaps

Friday (Unassisted): Stanley Cup Review and Preview

Last month I attended a colloquium at the Turning Stone resort and Casino in Verdona, New York. While at this event, I overheard an older gentleman standing behind me gushing about the Los Angeles King's 2-0 series lead over the number one seed Canucks. "Two short handed goals!" he exclaimed, throwing his hands in the air for effect while his listener smile and nodded. It was just passed 8:00 in the morning on a day in which I would sit through several hours of debate on the problems of "leviathan" or "the Minotaur," more interesting code names for big government. Seizing the chance to talk hockey on such a day, I turned around and introduced myself to the Kings fan. I asked "I couldn't help but listen in; why are you a Kings fan?" The man, who turned out to be LA based entrepreneur and that day's luncheon speaker Dick Erlanger, responded in short "Because I live there." We briefly talked about the Kings, the stellar play of Dustin Brown, my fondness for the Slovenian Anze Kopitar, and whether or not they'd sweep the Canucks at which point, as I always do, I shifted the conversation to the Flyers. "You know," I began, "It's interesting that the two biggest surprises thus far in the playoffs come from the two teams who made the biggest trade last summer." Before I could delve into the results of the trade, how Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds badly outperformed Mike Richards during the regular season, how new King Jeff Carter brought game 1 hero Jakub Voracek and Malkin-neutralizer Sean Couturier to Philadelphia, Mr. Erlanger simply said "Fair trade," and nodded confidently. I passively disagreed: "Yeah, well, we'll see." I figured I'd be laughing at Mr. Erlanger's expense when the Flyers ex-Kings and all won the cup in the first post-Richards-Carter season.

Fast forward a month and a half and one can picture Kings GM Dean Lombardi nodding confidently saying "Fair trade." After a tumultuous season in which they had three head coaches, finished second to last in the league in scoring, and stumbled into the playoffs as an eighth seed, the LA Kings will play for the Stanley Cup starting tonight. 

But let's not paint this as a Cinderella story or even as I suggested in March a Biggie Smalls story. In Captain Dustin Brown, and big forwards Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards, and Jeff Carter the Kings possess arguably four of the league's top fifty forwards. Brown, Richards, and Kopitar are especially effective on both sides of the puck as well on the penalty kill where they have accounted for four of the Kings's five shorthanded goals. The Kings also wear down opponents with their gargantuan size up front: six of their top twelve forwards stand 6'2" or taller. This size wore down the Canucks, Blues, and Coyotes respectively as the opponent's d-men struggled to contain the Kings's physical presence in the corners and in front of the net. 

On the back line, Drew Doughty leads a no-name but impressive supporting cast. Anyone who saw Doughty's stellar play as a 20 year old in the 2010 Olympics should not be surprised at the young defenseman's dominance in these playoffs. He contributes offensively with big bombs on the power play and smart shots from the point even strength. More than any other defenseman in these playoffs, Doughty avoids the opponents shins and finds his attackers' tapes as evidenced by this Anze Kopitar goal in the clinching game five. His intelligence on the offensive blueline is something to behold. Watch how Doughty patiently waits for the opposing forward's legs to open up just enough on this second period goal in the deciding game five:

He's third in defensemen scoring in the playoffs with ten points, only two back of leader Dan Girardi despite playing in six fewer games than Girardi. On the defensive side, Doughty sports an impressive +10 plus/minus rating while playing over twenty-five minutes per game. To put this into perspective, out of the twenty skaters who have averaged over twenty-five minutes of ice time in the playoffs only teammate Willie Mitchell at +8 comes close to Doughty's +10 mark. His sliding, swiping, defense of a Coyotes's three on one in game five displayed the former Norris Candidate's unquestionable defensive acumen. As good as Jonathan Quick has been, and he's been brilliant, the Doughty-led blueline has been integral to the Kings's success thus far.

Jonathan Quick. To quote Forrest Gump, "That's all I have to say about that."

From the east come the equally surprising Devils of New Jersey. On their way to the Cup they dispatched their two biggest rivals in decidedly devilish fashion. The Flyers assumed the role of cup favorites after they survived the favorite Penguins in six, but they became victims of hubris as the pesky yet skilled Devils took care of them in five games. Up next for the Devils came the vaunted New York Rangers, the East's best team all season long. The Devils exorcised the demons of 1994 by eliminating the Rangers on the same day as Messier's famous guarantee. John Tortorella repeatedly refuted the claim that his team was tired after playing two grueling seven game series in a row. "We are not a tired hockey team," he claimed in typical Torts fashion. Well if they weren't at the start of the series, they certainly were at the end. The Devils have survived this postseason on a ferocious forecheck led by do-it-all captain Zach Parise as well as gritty depth in the likes of Steven "AHL" Gionta, Steve Bernier, and Ryan Carter. The three make up a fourth line that has seemingly dished out as many big goals as they have hits. In decisive games five and six, Bernier, Carter, and Gionta combined for seven points as the Devils closed out the Blue Shirts. Not only did they score, but the checking line inflicted wear and tear on the Rangers steady d-corps. The usually dependable Marc Staal made two ill-advised offensive zone decisions that cost his squad goals in their last two losses. He dove mindlessly into a corner to try to keep a play alive only to lie prone on the ice as the Devils scored on the odd-man rush the other way. In game six, it was a bad pinch that led to this Ryan Carter goal that opened the scoring. It wasn't just Staal who struggled to play up to his standard late in the series. The Devils wore down the Rangers top d-pairing of Ryan McDonugh and Dan Girardi to the point of exhaustion. In the overtime of game 6, it was McDonugh who failed to close the gap after a turnover in the neutral zone. As desperation set in, all he could do was flail on the ice and hope.

Torts can talk all he wants but "non-tired" hockey players make those plays. Credit the Devils for their relentless play.
Let's also not limit the Devils to a lunch-pail hockey team whose work ethic carries the team further than its skill. In many ways they are still trying to remove the black mark of the "trap" from their franchise. Their formulaic system that clogged up the neutral zone in the late 90's and early 2000's led to three Stanley Cups in nine seasons and ushered in the dead puck era. But these guys have an abundance of skill. On the backline, Marek Zidlicky brings excellent on-ice vision to a power play that sorely lacked inspiration. Ilya Kovalchuk is doing all he can to remove the underachieving Russian stigma. He leads the playoffs in scoring with eighteen points. Throw in offensive stalwarts Parise, Patrik Elias, as well as underrated Dainus Zubrus and Travis Zajac, and the Devils put out a diverse and skilled lineup on a nightly basis.

Who Wins? Both teams have seemed unbeatable in recent rounds of the playoffs, which is great because we all want a seven game series. This could come down, as it so often does, to the goaltending for both teams. Jonathan Quick has been stellar for the Kings and will walk away with the Conn Smythe should the Kings emerge victorious. Martin Brodeur has looked shaky at times, but his distribution of the puck renders him a third defenseman on the Devils breakout. This in turn, limits the opposition's forecheck and constantly has the opponents retreating into the neutral zone. He hasn't needed to be spectacular. Yet. The Kings have so much size up front that stopping them from getting to the net will prove to be impossible. If the Devils can limit the Kings's chances in close, something the Blues and Coyotes failed to do, they could win this series. But even if they do, they still have to travel across the country after visiting neighbors in the previous two rounds. Quick shows no signs of weakness, and the Kings possess scoring depth that matches New Jersey's. Game one could effectively decide everything. This is a Kings team that has taken three-nothing leads in each of its first three series. How will they react to adversity should they lose game one? It will be a moot point because I don't think they will lose. I like the Kings in 6, but watch for the brooms.

Doesn't this goal look familiar?

-Dillon Friday

Friday (Unassisted) Round 2

First Round MVP: Claude Giroux
In his press conference following the Flyers series clinching win over the Penguins last Sunday, Claude Giroux sipped a gatorade, appropriately marked "G", wore a backwards Winter Classic hat, and answered every question cooly and composed. His coolness in front of the mic demonstrated his leadership as much as his first shift of the game. The night before game six, Giroux went up to Coach Peter Laviolette and said, "I want that first shift;" in pregame warmups he instructed veteran center Danny Briere "to watch the first shift." Ten seconds after puck drop, Giroux laid out Pens' star Sidney Crosby with a clean, hard hit. Twenty seconds after that, he converted a turnover into a dazzling goal; rounding a beaten Steve Sullivan before unleashing a wrist shot off of Marc-Andre Fleury's right post and into the back of the net. Giroux later added an assist to help finish off the Penguins in a 5-1 clinching performance. For many players, his game six would rank as a career achievement. For Giroux, it was his third best game in a series in which he had a six point game including a hattrick, a Gordie Howe hattrick, a shorthanded goal, two power play goals, and fourteen points overall. He averaged over twenty minutes of ice time and won just over fifty percent of his draws. In his wake Giroux left behind a star studded Penguins team that boasted the world's two best players in Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. It was a tour de force that vaulted Giroux into that world's best discussion. At 24, he's quickly evolving from budding phenom into bonafide superstar.
         Remember last summer when Paul Holmgren traded away the cornerstones of the Flyers future? He looks more brilliant every game. While both Mike Richards and Jeff Carter helped inspire the LA Kings to a first round upset of their own, their departure opened the door for Giroux to take a more decisive role on the team. Moreover, the returns on the trades contributed immensely to the Flyers success. Sean Couturier not only had a hattrick in game 2, but he also matched up with Malkin superbly, limiting the Art Ross winner to one measly even strength point over the six games. Jake Voracek scored the OT winner in game one, Brayden Schenn contributed six points in the series including a three point effort in game one, and Wayne Simmonds reinforced his reputation as a battler. 
Talking Points
- Phoenix won its first playoff series since moving from Winnipeg some fifteen years ago
- Nashville advanced to the second round for the second time in franchise history. They look like the best team in the West
- After struggling through a tumultuous season, the Washington Capitals defeated the defending champion Bruins in seven exhilarating games. Props to Joel Ward for scoring the series winner
- LA beat the President's trophy winners and defending Western Conference Champion Canucks in an upset that came out of nowhere
- Can the NHL please enforce punishments consistently? I give them credit for the Raffi Torres suspension, but how does Shea Webber not miss anytime for a non-hockey play? Where do you draw the line? It looks quite crooked at this point
- In keeping with the negative, Sidney Crosby's reputation took an irrevocable hit during his team's short stay in the post season. He instigated two brawls in game 3, swiped away Jake Voracek's glove as he reached down to pick it up, and did nothing but whine in the postgame interview. "I don't like anyone on that team," he said of the Flyers; isn't his best friend Max Talbot on 'that team'? Hmmmm. For someone with such a well-documented history of concussions Crosby puts himself in too many positions to receive abuse, especially in playoff hockey.

Series previews
New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

Both teams endured hard fought seven game series against game opponents. The teams split the regular season series, and I see a similar outcome here. The Rangers ran away with the Eastern Conference only to take an ego hit at the hands of the eighth seeded Senators. The Blue Shirts struggled to score, a task that will prove to be  more difficult when they take on the suddenly defensively conscious Capitals. Washington on the other hand bolstered their confidence by taking out the defending champs with their third string goaltender in net. They'll push the Rangers, but will not roll over the top seeded New York club. Look for Brad Richards to take over a tight checking series. It's what they paid him to do. Rangers in 6

Philadelphia Flyers vs. New Jersey Devils
Coming off an impressive six game victory over their cross-state rivals, the Flyers assume the role of cup favorite. On the flip side, the Devils struggled to put away a borderline playoff team in the Panthers, needing two overtimes in game seven to advance. However, this is a rivalry series. As we saw in the first round, anything could happen. With that being said, the Flyers can score in bunches and Marty Brodeur showed his age more often than not against the Cats. Philly also has home ice advantage. Flyers in 5

St. Louis Blues vs. Los Angeles Kings
Remember when we asked how good the Blues really are? I think they answered that question with a resounding "yes," David Backes the voice behind the call. Now, these weren't the Sharks of old, but the Blues faced little adversity in dismissing the teal shirts in a rather ordinary five games. They're deep up front and on the back line, and as we said, boast two of the best goalies going. The Kings exposed the Canucks as a flawed contender. They play a solid, gritty style that wins in the playoffs. This Blues team, though, looks too good at the moment. Blues in 5

Phoenix Coyotes vs. Nashville Predators
Gary Bettman's matchup. He is almost solely responsible for putting the NHL in both the desert and in Dixie. Now he faces a second round matchup that will surely draw the lowest ratings of the playoffs. Furthermore, he faces the prospect of one of these teams playing in the Stanley Cup finals. If the Coyotes advance the next two rounds, would he also put his name on the Cup? The NHL owns the franchise as of this writing. Something to think about. Also to think about, Nashville looks good. I mean really good. They dominated the once might Red Wings in five games and ease into the second round with the league's hottest goaltender, Pekka Rinne, and two of the league's best d-men in Ryan Suter and Shea Weber. Alexander Radulov has been as good as advertised since returning from exile, adding scoring depth to a team that so desperately craved a scorer's touch. Mike Smith turned in an equally impressive performance as Rinne, stonewalling the Coyotes to a six game victory over the favored Blackhawks. Still, I'm not sure Phoenix's offense can break through the stalwart defensive front of the Preds. Predators in 4

Let's get it in
-Dill

Friday (Unassisted): Playoff Preview

Before I get into my playoff predictions I want to acknowledge the season and career of the drastically under-appreciated Ray Whitney. Whitney recently scored his 1000th NHL point, a tremendous accomplishment especially given that he spent much of his career in the dead puck era. His success becomes even more noteworthy when you consider that Whitney spent seasons in the American Hockey League, the now defunct International Hockey League, and Germany before settling in as an NHL regular. The Left Winger has had borderline all-star numbers, and sometimes surpassed that standard, on numerous occasions. To his name he has ten twenty goal seasons. He's reached thirty goals twice, fifty assists four times, and seventy points five times. He chipped in fifteen points to help the Hurricanes hoist Lord Stanley's Cup in 2006. So why has he flown so far under the radar for so long? Well for starters Whitney is the kind of soft spoken Canadian that embodies the spirit of the hockey player: let your game do the talking. But like many issues these days, we can put a large portion of the blame on commissioner Gary Bettman, and indirectly Wayne Gretzky. With the exception of a short stint with the Oilers in 1997-'98, Whitney has plied his trade with four teams who've come into existence in the last twenty years: the Sharks, the Panthers, the Blue Jackets, the Hurricanes, and now the Coyotes. Consistency does not breed star power in non traditional markets. And so to little fan fare Whitney surpassed a thousand points, and it looks like he may watch the mark fade away in his rearview mirror. At age thirty-nine he played every game for the 'Yotes, scoring seventy-seven points and posting a gaudy +26 plus/minus, a career best. Still, at his advanced age Whitney's future is as uncertain as his team's. We at Friday (Unassisted) wish him and the Coyotes the best this postseason. If this is indeed the end for Ray Whitney, we hope he finally gets the recognition he's earned.

And now onto the Playoffs.

The NHL playoffs is the most exciting tournament in American sports because of the intensity of every seven game series. Every team believes it has a shot at winning the cup, a belief that creates the highly emotional, competitive affairs that we see every year. A lot of the talking heads and even some of the players throw out intangibles as keys to playoff success: grit, heart, guts, or for Head Coach Peter Laviolette of the Flyers, jam. I don't deny that a player's attitude can sway a series, but a formula exists for playoff supremacy. In order of importance, a team needs these qualities to sustain a deep cup run, excluding health and luck of course.
1. Deep defensive corps. The hot goaltender steals many of the headlines come springtime in the NHL. Tim Thomas's brilliance in backstopping the Bruins to the Stanley Cup won him the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. But where would the Bruins be without Big Z guarding the blue line? Thomas stole games on numerous occasions during the Bruins' cup run, but in many ways Chara and the rest of the B's underrated D-men made his heroics possible. Chara played upwards of thirty minutes every night. On his best nights, Thomas saw twenty-five or fewer shots, keeping him fresh for the grueling second season. With his gargantuan size, Chara also controlled the crease area like the cyclops controlled his cave in "The Odyssey:" all intruders would be smashed into a pulp. In doing so, Chara limited the amount of physical shots that Thomas received over the two months to victory. No doubt great goaltending is integral to playoff success, but think back two years ago to when the Blackhawks lifted the Cup. Antii Niemi played solid but well short of spectacular for the 2010 champions. On the opponent's side stood journeyman Michael Leyton, who had a habit of trading the soft goal for the spectacular save. The series epitomized the importance of defensemen. Chris Pronger, who with Scott Niedermayer led a JS Giguerre/ Ilya Bryzgalov tandem to the ultimate prize in 2007 (also worth noting: he dragged the eighth seeded Oilers to within one game of glory in 2006), played thirty minutes nearly every game that playoffs for the Flyers. He matched up with the opposing team's best players every shift, and dictated the pace of games with his size, presence, and patience with the puck. He neutralized the red-hot, all pronunciation Toews-Byfuglien-Kane line for four games before Joel Quenneville got smart and split them up. It certainly helped to have veteran Kimmo Timonen in reserve for the Flyers, but Pronger was the star and could have won the Conn Smythe despite his team's loss. If Pronger and Chara represent the impact of the looming behemoth defenseman, Duncan Kieth and Brent Seabrook offer us a look at two of the best mobile two-way defenders in the game. With their speed and hockey sense, Kieth and Seabrook can simultaneously snuff out an opponent's attack while facilitating their own. Their mobility allows them to avoid the kind of physical wear and tear that plagues the big defenseman (It's no coincidence that Pronger has missed almost two seasons following the Flyers deep run in 2010). Nicklas Lidstrom stands alone as the Statue of David for the mobile d-man, that is, the one all other d-men strive to emulate. He's won four Stanley Cups with Detroit, and could add a fifth even as he crosses into his fifth decade of life. The man is a marvel. If you look at every playoff team this year, nearly all have the kind of defensemen who can eat ice time and play effectively: In the West you have Kevin Bieksa and Alex Edler in Vancouver, Alex Pietrangelo and Kevin Shattenkirk in St. Louis, Shea Weber and Ryan Suter in Nashville, Nick Lidstom and Nick Kronwall in Detroit, the aforementioned Kieth and Seabrook in Chicago, and Dan Boyle and Brent Burns in San Jose. The East boasts Chara and Seidenberg in Boston, McDonagh, Girardi, Staal and Del Zotto in New York, Letang and Orpik in Pittsburgh, Coburn and Timonen in Philly, and even the offensive minded Mike Green in Washington, whose health is paramount to the Capital's postseason run. The teams with the deepest core behind their clydesdales will play into late May and early June.
2. Goaltending- A misconception exists in the minds of many hockey fans: the myth of the hot goalie. What we should measure is not the goalie's "hotness," nor his game to game stats, but his innate ability to steal games. In other words, the 5-4 win is worth just as much as the 1-0 win. A goalie cannot feasibly every puck every night, but if he stops the right pucks his team should win. The right save may be a half break away while the goalie is facing a 2-0 deficit. A spectacular glove save in a 5-5 game could win a game for a team. Tim Thomas had countless saves in such games that have resulted in Bruins victories. The right save can steal a game, if made habitual it could steal a series. Over the years the "hot goalie" can only carry a team so far. Jaroslav Halak nearly single-handedly beat the Capitals and Penguins in 2010. He could not however sustain the energy necessary to overcome a better Flyers. Ditto for JS Giguerre during his magical run in '03. With a deep blueline in front of him, a stealer can win a cup as Thomas did last year.
3. Scoring Depth with a hint of physicality- The teams with forwards that can score and play physical will play deep into the Spring. Defensive matchups will take care of first line scorers considering that refs let more borderline plays go. Coaches counter this by sticking a grinder between two skilled players, think Alex Burrows in Vancouver and Scott Hartnell in Philly. The Penguins have an abundance of both skill and grit, and possess arguably the two best forwards on the planet. They are the envy of all other organizations when it comes to forward depth, and pose the toughest matchup for any defensive team. We've discussed this advantage here before: Crosby's Back.

Eastern Conference
1. New York vs. 8. Ottawa
D-Corps: New York
Goaltending: New York
Forwards: New York Slightly 

New York has a clear advantage when considering the three main categories we've discussed. However, Ottawa won the season series three games to one. Is there a chance of an upset here? Sure, but I don't think it will happen. New York's defensive depth will neutralize the talented line of Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, and Milan Michalek. Ryan Callahan and Co. will terrorize the likes of Erik Karlsson and Sergei Gonchar on the back line and in the corners. It helps to have Henrik Lunqvist standing between the pipes as well. He's been the best goaltender all season long. King Henrik strips his humble Swedish nature as soon as he takes the ice; he dares the shooters to score on him, he won't accept any goal against. That kind of confidence permeates the locker room. Ottawa ran out of steam at the end of the year resulting in their eighth seeded finish. They'll be out in five here.
Prediction: Rangers 4, Sens 1 


2. Boston Bruins vs. 7. Washington Capitals
D-Corps: Boston
Goaltending: Boston
Forwards: Washington

Once a power in the Eastern Conference, the Capitals fought through a season of turmoil to finish seventh this year. Alex Ovechkin continues to look more and more like his enigmatic teammate Alex Semin. However, Ovi has turned it on lately, finishing with a respectable thirty-eight goals. Even better news for Caps fans, Nicklas Backstrom returned from concussion and should be well rested for the playoffs. I smell an upset here... but then again these are the former champs with a roster that is virtually unchanged from last year's winner. Zdeno Chara is still the baddest mother in the village as Pierre Maguire likes to say. The concern for Boston ironically though, is in goal. Tuuka Rask outplayed Tim Thomas much of the year before an injury ended his season. Thomas's flailing style has yielded a plethora of bad goals in recent weeks. An over-the-hill Marty Turco doesn't offer much support either. Fine, I'll take the Capitals in seven.
Prediction: Capitals 4, Bruins 3

3. Florida Panthers vs. 6. New Jersey Devils
D-Corps: Devils
Goaltending: Devils, but closer than you think
Forwards: Devils

The NHL's faulty seeding system results in this lovely first round matchup. Here's two stats that define this series. One: -24. Two: 18. The first is the Panther's woeful goal differential, the second their OTL points from this season. The latter statistic resulted in their winning the weakest division in the NHL and thus nabbing an undeserved home ice advantage in the first round. Meanwhile, the Devils reap the rewards of playing the decidedly average Panthers after an impressive 102 point campaign in the brutal Atlantic. Kovalchuk, Parise, Henrique, and the ever-present Patrik Elias will run the Florida d and goaltending ragged in what will surely be a short series. The Panthers' only hope is that the hot weather will mellow out the uber-aggressive Devils forecheck.
Devils 4, Panthers 0

4. Pittsburgh vs. 5. Philadelphia
D-Corps: Philadelphia
Goaltending: Pittsburgh slightly  
Forwards: Pittsburgh


The battle of Pennsylvania is the most intense rivalry going in professional sports and undoubtedly the most anticipated matchup in the first round. These teams hate each other like Captain Cook hates Peter Pan. By all accounts this will be a bloodbath loaded with hard-hitting, fighting, and plenty of penalty minutes. The team that can retain their discipline will be the victor. If Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby avoid the extracurriculars, the Penguins should win, but in the last few meetings they've found themselves in multiple scrums. The Flyers won the season series 4-2 with Crosby playing in half of those games. The series may come down to the goaltending. Marc-Andre Fleury has a Cup on his resume, while the other-worldly Ilya Bryzgalov has looked very ordinary in previous playoff appearances. Bryz has proven to be a stealer of late, and Philly will need him to play that role if they want to advance. This series probably deserves a post of its own. With Claude Giroux, Malkin, Crosby, James Neal, Jordan Staal, Jaromir Jagr, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, Kris Letang, and Daniel Briere fans will be licking their chops at the delicious hockey being served up. Let's hope this goes seven. I don't see it.
Penguins 4, Flyers 2

Western Conference 
1. Vancouver vs. 8. Kings
D-Corps: Canucks 
Goaltending: Kings
Forwards: Canucks
The health of Daniel Sedin may decide this series. If he can return from concussion the Canucks should win this fairly easily. The Kings have been in disarray all season long save for one very important person: Goaltender Jonathan Quick. Quick's been stellar and will surely garner some Vezina consideration. He's a bonafide stealer and could extend the series. Can he win it? Maybe, but this Canucks team is clinical. They won their second straight President's Trophy to little fanfare nationally. Their building will be rocking for the postseason however. I like them in six.
Canucks 4, Kings 2

2. St. Louis vs. 7. San Jose
D-Corps: Sharks
Goaltending: Blues
Forwards: Push
How good is St. Louis? After contending for the President's trophy into the last week, and allowing the fewest goals in the league behind the no-name tandem of Brian Elliot and Jaroslav Halak, they appear very good. Still, many still see them as an overachieving team whose luck will run out soon. Let me say this: They are built for the postseason. As we mentioned earlier Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo lead a talented and deep group of blueliners. Up front, the indispensable David Backes hits, fights, and most importantly scores. His fifty-four points were good enough for best on a low scoring team, but the Blues have several big forwards who thrive in the kind of gritty, playoff hockey they'll likely see. Halak stole two series for the Habs in '10, and could do the same here. If he doesn't, Brian Elliot led the league in save percentage and goals against average, so yeah... they're set. The Sharks, though, are not your typical seventh seed. They've made the conference finals the last two seasons and are carrying momentum into the postseason from a late season surge. I like their chances.
Sharks 4, Blues 3

3. Phoenix vs. 6. Chicago
D-Corps: Chicago
Goaltending: Phoenix
Forwards: Chicago

Chicago will miss Jonathon Toews dearly. When healthy, Toews is a top five player in the league. The Hawks just aren't the same without him. However, they possess an impressive supporting casts including several  hold overs from their cup winning side. There are a lot of Chicagoans in Phoenix as well... Could they steal home ice advantage? Yes they could. But Shane Doan refuses to dip out of the playoffs early again. The off-ice issues has had a galvanizing effect for the team. They focus on hockey because that's all that they can control. Mike Smith has been phenomenal in goal, while Corey Crawford and Ray Emery like to share the net... and not in a good way. I like the Coyotes here in a semi-upset.
Phoenix 4, Chicago 2

4. Nashville vs. 5. Detroit
D-Corps: Red Wings by a hair
Goaltending: Nashville
Forwards: Detroit

How does Nashville still sneak up on people even after making the playoffs six of the last seven seasons? Well they haven't had a lot of success when they got there. Last year's series victory over the Ducks was the franchise's first. The Predators do however fit the formula we laid out earlier. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are as good as it gets on the defensive side of the puck while both contribute offensively. The Russian import Alexander Radulov brings scoring touch to a forward group that lacks skill but has miles of heart. They won't give up to the powerful Red Wings. Pekka Rinne stops everything he sees and most that he doesn't, a stealer no doubt. On the other side, the Red Wings role four lines out that can score including the game's best two way player Pavel Datsyuk. He can take over a series as he did last year against San Jose. Although the Red Wings ultimately bowed out, Datsyuk was brilliant. Nicklas Lidstrom leads by example, and what an example it is. He might be a top five defenseman of all time, and he can still bring it. The question mark is in goal, where Jimmy Howard starred during the regular season but has yet to sustain a playoff run. This will be a great series played in front of some rabid fan bases. Yes that includes Nashville. They love their Preds. Hmmmm, I like the Predators in this one in seven. Hurray for us!
Predators 4, Red Wings 3

And here's the best video on youtube. 

Let's get it in.
-Dill

The National League Central

A vacuum of power exists in the chaotic National League Central. Five teams from the Central have qualified for the playoffs over the past eight seasons. The Brewers have assumed leadership in the division in name only. They may have won the division crown, but the Cardinals beat their division rivals on their way to the World Championship. Both teams, however, lost important pieces of last season's success. The hefty masher Prince Fielder left the Brewers for Detroit, while the irreplaceable Albert Pujols, perhaps the greatest hitter of his generation, found haven in Anaheim. In the wake of the departure of the perennial MVP candidates, the Reds reemerge as contenders behind the steady hitting of theirs. Joey Votto inked a ten year, $225 million deal to remain a Red. The contract emphasizes the Cincinnati club's commitment to success, and their attempt to establish a stronghold on the weakening division. Let's not forget about the Pirates either. Pittsburgh has trodded through nineteen straight losing summers, but they led the division through one hundred games in 2011. With young talent such as Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, and solid performances from reclamation projects AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard, the Pirates could challenge the tentative powers that be in the division. Things are even looking up in Chicago. While eighty wins would be deemed a success this year, new GM Theo Epstein should establish a culture of winning going forward for the Cubs. Starlin Castro looks like the real deal at short and could bring the Cubbies to the metaphorical hump if not over it just yet.
Subtle optimism permeates all these teams, but hasn't yet made its way to Houston. The Astros will celebrate their fiftieth season by making it their last in the National League. The American League is their destination next year, this year it's the cellar.

How it should finish
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros

Aces Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo supplement a still formidable Brewers lineup. MVP Ryan Braun consistently puts up tremendous offensive numbers, while Corey Hart and newly acquired third baseman Aramis Ramirez should make up some of the power lost with Prince Fielder. PED allegations should only inspire Braun to new heights. Despite losing to the eventual champion Cardinals, the Brewers gained invaluable experience during last season's success. They should utilize that experience to hold off at least three other division contenders.

How it could finish
1. Reds
2. Pirates
3. Brewers
4. Cubs
5. Cardinals
6. Astros

The Reds are just one year removed from the division title, and bolstered an improving pitching staff this off season with the addition of Mat Latos. The switch from cavernous Petco Park to the Great American Small Park could prove troublesome for the young ace. However, Latos should also be relieved of ace pressures by the sporadically brilliant Johnny Cueto. If Cueto can string together quality starts, that one-two punch could pitch the Reds into October.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cardinals could free fall into fourth, fifth, or even last place. The Indianapolis Colts provide a nice parallel for St. Louis. Both franchises relied heavily on the presence of Hall of Fame leadership as well as each sport's best player. The Colts lost Tony Dungy and then Peyton Manning and limped their way to last place. Although I recognize there are distinct differences between football and baseball, the point I'm making is losing Tony La Russa and Albert Pujols in a matter of months is not a harbinger of success. Adam Wainwright could keep them afloat, but only in offsetting the injury loss of veteran Chris Carpenter.

How it will finish
1. Reds
2. Brewers
3. Pirates
4.Cardinals
5. Cubs
6. Astros

Joey Votto is the kind of high character talent that all teams wish they could build around. Votto will meet the demands of his gargantuan contract to the tune of .300 40 home runs and 120 rbis. Moreover, the Reds possess strong leadership in manager Dusty Baker as well as in the aforementioned Votto and gregarious second baseman Brandon Phillips. I expect some resistance from the reigning winners the Brewers, but they will ultimately fall short; the enigmatic Greinke the epitome of the Brewers' shortcomings.





MVP: Joey Votto
Cy Young: Adam Wainwright
Bold Prediction: The Pittsburgh Pirates will finish above .500 at 82-80

Dillon Friday

2012 National League East Preview

The National League East received the heaviest dose of intrigue following the 2011 season. The seemingly invincible Phillies lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the eventual champion Cardinals, the Florida Marlins changed their name and, ghasp, spent money in free agency, and the Washington Nationals, with the return of budding ace Stephen Strasburg and phenom in waiting Bryce Harper, may steal the headlines in the capital come November 2012. With Bud Selig's introduction of a second wild card team as many as three NL East teams could make the playoffs. The Braves and Phillies have won nineteen of the last twenty division titles. This year, it could be anyone's division... except the Mets. New York's off field problems have overshadowed their general mediocrity on the field. The fans have left in droves, leaving their shiny new ballpark well short of capacity in Queens. The four other teams, however, have to like where their teams sit.

How it should finish
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3.Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

Pitching wins championships is the mantra of this division and the reigning division champs still have the strongest staff. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels posted era's well under 3.00 last year, while rookie Vance Worley finished out at 3.01. Phillies pitchers posted a miniscule 3.02 number as a team. If Worley can even close repeating his freshman numbers the Phils should win the division for a sixth time running, and comfortably so.

How it could finish
1. Miami Marlins
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

The Phillies' lineup is aging at best, old and fragile at worst. Perennial MVP candidate Chase Utley has missed 106 games over the last two years, and will start the season on the DL with a knee ailment (I struggle to keep that singular). Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Placido Polanco have all had their share of injury problems over the past few seasons, Howard's ruptured achilles tendon the most pressing as the season starts. Only John Mayberry, Jr. and Hunter Pence are under thirty. In other words, they could struggle to score runs. Miami on the other has established an identity in South Florida. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez should terrorize opposing pitchers both at the plate and on the base paths, while Giancarlo Stanton fka Mike will threaten the forty home run mark. They will score runs. With the addition of Chicago imports Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buerhle, the Marlins bolstered an already formidable pitching staff. Josh Johnson's health remains a concern, but he's healthy now and is a bona fide ace. New manager Ozzie Guillen will provide guidance for the volatile Zambrano. If he can coax fifteen wins from the former Cub watch out, 95 wins is not out of the question for the Marlins.
Don't count out the Braves either. They were a historic late season collapse away from nabbing the wild card spot last year. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens front an underrated rotation, and they have sentimental advantage of playing for Chipper Jones in his last season. 

How it will finish
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Nationals
5. Mets

Ultimately the Phillies pitching will win them the division. Expect around 93 wins from the Fightin' Phils. The Marlins, though talented, will struggle to gel in the early going but will secure the second wild card in September. The Braves defy explanation year after year. They'll repeat the act this season. Ninety wins gets them into the playoffs.

MVP: Brian McCann
Runner up: Hunter Pence

Cy Young: Roy Halladay
Runner up: Cole Hamels


Bold Prediction: Stephen Strasburg will lead the league in strikeouts with over 250.

-Dillon Friday