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Thursday, April 5, 2012

The National League Central

A vacuum of power exists in the chaotic National League Central. Five teams from the Central have qualified for the playoffs over the past eight seasons. The Brewers have assumed leadership in the division in name only. They may have won the division crown, but the Cardinals beat their division rivals on their way to the World Championship. Both teams, however, lost important pieces of last season's success. The hefty masher Prince Fielder left the Brewers for Detroit, while the irreplaceable Albert Pujols, perhaps the greatest hitter of his generation, found haven in Anaheim. In the wake of the departure of the perennial MVP candidates, the Reds reemerge as contenders behind the steady hitting of theirs. Joey Votto inked a ten year, $225 million deal to remain a Red. The contract emphasizes the Cincinnati club's commitment to success, and their attempt to establish a stronghold on the weakening division. Let's not forget about the Pirates either. Pittsburgh has trodded through nineteen straight losing summers, but they led the division through one hundred games in 2011. With young talent such as Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez, and solid performances from reclamation projects AJ Burnett and Erik Bedard, the Pirates could challenge the tentative powers that be in the division. Things are even looking up in Chicago. While eighty wins would be deemed a success this year, new GM Theo Epstein should establish a culture of winning going forward for the Cubs. Starlin Castro looks like the real deal at short and could bring the Cubbies to the metaphorical hump if not over it just yet.
Subtle optimism permeates all these teams, but hasn't yet made its way to Houston. The Astros will celebrate their fiftieth season by making it their last in the National League. The American League is their destination next year, this year it's the cellar.



How it should finish
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Houston Astros

Aces Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo supplement a still formidable Brewers lineup. MVP Ryan Braun consistently puts up tremendous offensive numbers, while Corey Hart and newly acquired third baseman Aramis Ramirez should make up some of the power lost with Prince Fielder. PED allegations should only inspire Braun to new heights. Despite losing to the eventual champion Cardinals, the Brewers gained invaluable experience during last season's success. They should utilize that experience to hold off at least three other division contenders.

How it could finish
1. Reds
2. Pirates
3. Brewers
4. Cubs
5. Cardinals
6. Astros

The Reds are just one year removed from the division title, and bolstered an improving pitching staff this off season with the addition of Mat Latos. The switch from cavernous Petco Park to the Great American Small Park could prove troublesome for the young ace. However, Latos should also be relieved of ace pressures by the sporadically brilliant Johnny Cueto. If Cueto can string together quality starts, that one-two punch could pitch the Reds into October.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Cardinals could free fall into fourth, fifth, or even last place. The Indianapolis Colts provide a nice parallel for St. Louis. Both franchises relied heavily on the presence of Hall of Fame leadership as well as each sport's best player. The Colts lost Tony Dungy and then Peyton Manning and limped their way to last place. Although I recognize there are distinct differences between football and baseball, the point I'm making is losing Tony La Russa and Albert Pujols in a matter of months is not a harbinger of success. Adam Wainwright could keep them afloat, but only in offsetting the injury loss of veteran Chris Carpenter.

How it will finish
1. Reds
2. Brewers
3. Pirates
4.Cardinals
5. Cubs
6. Astros

Joey Votto is the kind of high character talent that all teams wish they could build around. Votto will meet the demands of his gargantuan contract to the tune of .300 40 home runs and 120 rbis. Moreover, the Reds possess strong leadership in manager Dusty Baker as well as in the aforementioned Votto and gregarious second baseman Brandon Phillips. I expect some resistance from the reigning winners the Brewers, but they will ultimately fall short; the enigmatic Greinke the epitome of the Brewers' shortcomings.





MVP: Joey Votto
Cy Young: Adam Wainwright
Bold Prediction: The Pittsburgh Pirates will finish above .500 at 82-80

Dillon Friday

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