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Wednesday, April 4, 2012

2012 National League East Preview

The National League East received the heaviest dose of intrigue following the 2011 season. The seemingly invincible Phillies lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the eventual champion Cardinals, the Florida Marlins changed their name and, ghasp, spent money in free agency, and the Washington Nationals, with the return of budding ace Stephen Strasburg and phenom in waiting Bryce Harper, may steal the headlines in the capital come November 2012. With Bud Selig's introduction of a second wild card team as many as three NL East teams could make the playoffs. The Braves and Phillies have won nineteen of the last twenty division titles. This year, it could be anyone's division... except the Mets. New York's off field problems have overshadowed their general mediocrity on the field. The fans have left in droves, leaving their shiny new ballpark well short of capacity in Queens. The four other teams, however, have to like where their teams sit.

How it should finish
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3.Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

Pitching wins championships is the mantra of this division and the reigning division champs still have the strongest staff. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels posted era's well under 3.00 last year, while rookie Vance Worley finished out at 3.01. Phillies pitchers posted a miniscule 3.02 number as a team. If Worley can even close repeating his freshman numbers the Phils should win the division for a sixth time running, and comfortably so.

How it could finish
1. Miami Marlins
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

The Phillies' lineup is aging at best, old and fragile at worst. Perennial MVP candidate Chase Utley has missed 106 games over the last two years, and will start the season on the DL with a knee ailment (I struggle to keep that singular). Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Placido Polanco have all had their share of injury problems over the past few seasons, Howard's ruptured achilles tendon the most pressing as the season starts. Only John Mayberry, Jr. and Hunter Pence are under thirty. In other words, they could struggle to score runs. Miami on the other has established an identity in South Florida. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez should terrorize opposing pitchers both at the plate and on the base paths, while Giancarlo Stanton fka Mike will threaten the forty home run mark. They will score runs. With the addition of Chicago imports Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buerhle, the Marlins bolstered an already formidable pitching staff. Josh Johnson's health remains a concern, but he's healthy now and is a bona fide ace. New manager Ozzie Guillen will provide guidance for the volatile Zambrano. If he can coax fifteen wins from the former Cub watch out, 95 wins is not out of the question for the Marlins.
Don't count out the Braves either. They were a historic late season collapse away from nabbing the wild card spot last year. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens front an underrated rotation, and they have sentimental advantage of playing for Chipper Jones in his last season. 

How it will finish
1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Marlins
4. Nationals
5. Mets

Ultimately the Phillies pitching will win them the division. Expect around 93 wins from the Fightin' Phils. The Marlins, though talented, will struggle to gel in the early going but will secure the second wild card in September. The Braves defy explanation year after year. They'll repeat the act this season. Ninety wins gets them into the playoffs.

MVP: Brian McCann
Runner up: Hunter Pence

Cy Young: Roy Halladay

Runner up: Cole Hamels


Bold Prediction: Stephen Strasburg will lead the league in strikeouts with over 250.


-Dillon Friday

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